July 24 2013 | By Márcio Barra
Evaluate Pharma has released today their sixth edition of their series EvaluatePharma’s World Preview. Like always, it is filled with high-quality data on the (mostly) post-patent cliff world that we live in, worthy of a careful read. Some highlights of the report follow:
- Worldwide prescription drug sales forecast to grow by 3.8% to a total of $895 billion in 2018.
- Worldwide prescription drugs sales experienced an unprecedented fall of 1.6% in 2012 due to a large number of blockbuster patent expiries, including Seroquel, Diovan, Plavix, Singulair, Lexapro and Geodon.
- 2012 was the best year for new drug approvals since 1997, with the FDA approving 43 new drugs in 2012, a 23% increase from the 35 new entities approved in 2011. The 2012 approvals included 33 new molecular entities (nine more than 2011) and ten biologicals (one more than 2011).
- Between 2013 and 2018, there are $230 billion of sales at risk from patent expiration. However, the market expects around only half of this value to be lost as a result of generic competition, due to growing sales of biotechnology products, who suffer less sales erosions from biosimilars.
- Humira (Adalimumab), Abbvie’s TNF inhibitor for rheumatoid arthritis, is projected to be world’s largest selling product in 2018, with $12.3 billion. Number two goes for Merck’s diabetes franchise Januvia/ Janumet, third to Amgen’s/Pfizer’s Enbrel, and Sanofi takes fourth place with Lantus.
- Pfizer remains top company by worldwide Rx sales in 2012; Novartis number two. In the U.S. Pfizer remained in the top position in terms of USA prescription drug sales in 2012 even after a 19% decline in sales primarily due to loss of exclusivity on Lipitor. As for Europe, Novartis was number one in prescription drug sales in 2012. In Japan, Takeda took the top spot.
- By 2018, Novartis is expected to be number one in terms of worldwide Rx sales, with expected sales of $52.3 billion in 2018, $3.3 billion more than second-place Sanofi and $5.5 billion more than third-place Pfizer.
- Novartis will also remain the top spender in R&D by 2018, spending approximately $10.3 billion.
- Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend forecast to be $149 billion in 2018.
- Gilead’s hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, Sofosbuvir (acquired for $11.2 billion via Pharmasset in January 2012) will become the most valuable R&D product, with a current valuation of $28.6 billion. Sofosbuvir received recently a priority review status from the FDA, which cuts the evaluation period from 12 months down to 8 months.
- Anti-coagulants are set to record the highest worldwide sales growth of major therapy categories to 2018, with an annual growth rate of 11.5%. Oncology is expected to remain number one in 2018, with Roche remaining its biggest stakeholder.
- Within the top 100 prescription products in 2018, biological products are expected to account for more than 50% of sales
- Sanofi to be the top vaccine company in 2018, with GlaxoSmithKline sliding to number three. Pfizer’s Prevenar 13 vaccine is predicted to have an annual growth rate of 8%, accounting for 15.6% of the entire vaccine market in 2018.
- Germany was the European Member state with the highest government expenditures on pharmaceuticals in 2011, followed by France, Italy, UK and Spain.
For the full report, please go here for Evaluate Pharma’s website, and download the report for free (requires registration)